ING have an interesting piece here where they make a case for rising metal demand. They have a three fold scenario outlook which ranges from ‘wait and see’ through to ‘fast forward’. These projections essentially show their slowest projections up to their fastest. The key areas that are going to develop are things like energy storage, transmission cables, and distribution cables. The IEA see at least around 79 million KM of the stuff on the way.
The bottom line of ING’s research is as follows in terms of metal demand. However, remember their caveat that some technologies need for metals may change as the technology changes.
Wind is number one
Wind is to hold the biggest share of the power mix by 2040 under the two faster progression speeds. Copper and aluminium are the winners under this scenario.
Solar to make up nearly one fifth of the power mix by 2040. Clearly another big player in the future. Copper and aluminium the winners here again.
The main winners and losers
The team over at ING have a helpful overall summary on the major gainers of all metals across all the different energy requirements and technologies. Nickel, Lithium, and Cobalt demand stand out.
This ties in with some research done by UBS on their expected metal demands for EV’s in the future.
Copper is a buy on dips.