The RBNZ meet at 0100 on February 24 and the RBNZ’s press conference will be at 0200. The recent run of economic data for New Zealand has been good and inflationary pressures have been building in the last readings. Furthermore, the prospect of negative rates have receded with monetary policy seen to be working.
So the broad outlook for the NZD is more strength. Yes, the RBNZ will not want to push ahead of the Fed, so expect a dovish tilt in the bank’s rhetoric talking about ‘risks’ ahead etc. However, the rising 2 year inflation expectations, housing prices increase, and falling unemployment all mean the NZD should still face buying pressure.
All economists polled by Reuters expect rates to remain unchanged at 0.25%. The RBNZ shadow board said there was no ‘need for change’ at this meeting. You can read their report here.
Any falls in the NZD should be a buy on the dips.